游玩《流亡王国》（以及许多其他 RPG）的核心内容与动力之一，便是寻找更好的装备——无论是在最深处的地牢中搜刮宝箱，还是收集沿途击杀无数敌人所得的掉落物。One of the core aspects and motivations of playing Exiled Kingdoms (as well as many other RPGs) is the search for better equipment, either through looting chests in the deepest dungeons or collecting drops from countless enemies slain on the way there. 虽然某些独特或稀有物品可以在固定地点或通过特定任务行为必定获得，但另一些物品则只能靠运气掉落。While some unique or rare items can be obtained for sure at pre-defined locations or through specific quest actions, there are others which will only drop by chance. 试图获得这些物品往往需要耐心与毅力（或大量的运气），而其中最为稀有的那些几乎注定会带来不少挫败感。Trying to obtain those often requires patience and endurance (or a lot of luck), with some frustration being almost guaranteed for the rarest among them. 为了寻求些许慰藉，了解背后的掉落机制以及由此产生的统计上奇特现象或许会有所帮助。To find some comfort, it may help to make oneself aware of the underlying drop mechanisms and the resulting statistical oddities.
Basic 战利品Loot Mechanics
Every 容器container or 敌人enemy has a certain list (the so-called 战利品loot 桌子table) of 物品items that may potentially 丢弃drop (except for some 敌人enemies which in fact 丢弃drop nothing). 每件物品都被赋予一定的掉落几率，范围从 1%（最稀有的物品）到 100%（必定掉落）。A certain drop chance is attributed to each of these items, ranging from 1% (for the rarest items) to 100% (for sure drops). 每当一个宝箱被打开或一具敌人尸体被搜刮时，相应的掉落表会自上而下进行判定，为每件物品掷骰，并将每一次成功的掷骰结果加入实际掉落之中。Once a chest is opened or a dead enemy looted, the corresponding drop table is evaluated from top to bottom, throwing dice for every item and adding every successful toss to the actual loot. 然而，每次掉落有物品数量的上限（1-4 件），因此如果已经达到这一上限，长掉落表底部的物品可能永远不会被判定。However, there is a maximum number of items (1-4) per loot, so it may happen that items at the bottom of a long loot table may never get evaluated if this limit is already reached. 因此，获得这类物品的真实几率甚至更低，尤其是当上方物品的掉落几率相当高（因而已经塞满了掉落袋）时。Therefore, the true chance for obtaining such items is even lower, especially if the items above have a rather high chance of dropping (thus having already filled the loot bag).
Selection Timing
If 你you're trying to set up repeated runs to find a 稀有rare 物品item, the following 三神three principles hold, most of the time, as best we can tell:
1) An 区域area's 箱子chests' 目录contents are set when the 区域area grid 是is loaded for the first time after 重置reset. 注：“区域网格”指地面世界区域（例如：N.B.: "area grid" means the overworld area (e.g. H10 对应兰内加山谷），以及其中的任何地下城。H10 for Lannegar Valley), and any dungeons located within it. So in order to force a 重置reset of 箱子chests, 你you need to 读取load from a 保存save that 是is outside your target 区域area entirely. 而“重置之后”指的是（在区域外）睡上 12 个小时之后，或是一次读档之后。And "after reset" means after a 12-hour sleep (outside the area), or a game load. 有时候，如果游戏在你所读取的存档之前曾途经另一区域并缓存了那里宝箱的内容，那么一次读档甚至不会强制重置宝箱。Sometimes a game load doesn't even force a chest reset, if the game has cached the contents of chests in another area from a prior walk through it before the save you're loading. 确保宝箱重置的唯一稳妥做法是：在其他地方睡一觉，走到目标区域边缘，保存，然后从该存档读取游戏。The only safe way to ensure a chest reset is to sleep somewhere else, walk to the edge of the target area, save, and load from that save.
2) 怪物Monster 战利品loot 目录contents are usually set when the 地牢dungeon / 等级level 你you're seeking loads for the first time after 重置reset. 因此，如果你寻找的是某种特定怪物的掉落，你可以从一个刚好位于该怪物所在地下城之外的存档读取游戏。So if it's a specific monster's loot you're seeking, you can load from a save that is just outside the dungeon it's located in. This does not 100% apply - for example, re-rolling the 被亵渎的巫妖Desecrated Lich's 战利品loot appears to require loading from a 保存save entirely outside of 深霜冰川Deepfrost Glacier, not just outside of 毁坏的遗迹Desecrated Ruins - but it does seem to apply the vast majority of the time.
3) The 冒险者random-number generator that chooses the 箱子chest and 怪物monster 战利品loot 是is seeded based on your actions and 属性stats up to the point of loading the target 区域area. 这意味着，如果你多次从同一存档读取游戏，然后以相同方式跑完该区域，你从怪物和宝箱中获得的掉落将完全相同。This means if you load from the same save multiple times and then run the area the same, you will get the exact same drops from monsters and chests. 要想让游戏掷出不同的掉落，你需要在加载该区域之前做出一些不同的举动。To get the game to roll different loot, you need to do something different before loading that area. e.g. (A) killing a different 怪物monster in the outside (saved-in) 区域area, or multiple, or (B) buying an 物品item in the 城镇town 你you just slept in, or multiple (perhaps 治疗healing 药水potions). Another tactic 是is to go into the target 区域area, kill or 战利品loot something, go 返回back out, 保存save, and 读取load that 保存save - this 是is 普通common when running the 被遗忘的庙宇Forgotten Temple for example. We're not sure whether the randomness 是is derived from your 金币gold or 经验XP or some combination of a bunch of 属性stats, just that 你you need to change the 游戏game state somehow, mix things up, in order to get a fresh roll of the dice.
Statistical Effects
What exactly a certain 丢弃drop chance means for the number of attempts a player needs to get a specific 物品item may be better understood by looking at the corresponding statistical results, i.e. 二项式概率分布。the binomial probability distribution. 在下图中，展示了经过 100 次尝试（即In the graph below the probability for finding a certain number of items after 100 attempts (i.e. 100x looting a 容器container or a dead 敌人enemy) 是is shown for 4 different 丢弃drop rates.
正如凭直觉所料，中等掉落率（10% 和 25%）的分布相当对称，分别以 10 件和 25 件的平均值为中心。As would be expected intuitively, the distribution for moderate drop rates (10% and 25%) is quite symmetric, centered around the average values of 10 and 25 items, respectively. 但对于较低的掉落率，分布会变得越来越不对称，零掉落的概率也在不断增大。But for lower drop rates the distribution gets more and more asymmetric, with increasing probability of having zero drops. 因此，对于 3% 的掉落率，在 100 次尝试后，将近 5% 的玩家将一无所获。So for a drop rate of 3%, almost 5% of all players will have no item after 100 attempts. 对于所有物品中最稀有的那些（1% 掉落率），这一数字急剧攀升——在 100 次尝试后，超过三分之一的玩家将囊中空空。This number rapidely increases for the rarest of all items (1% drop rate), for which more than one third of all players will have empty pockets after 100 attempts. 而这还没有算上上文所述掉落表的影响！And that's without taking into acount the loot table effects described above!
除了关注经过一定次数的尝试后能收集到多少物品之外，我们还可以问：需要多少次尝试，才能让零掉落的几率降至某个阈值以下直至近乎消失。Instead of looking at how many items one gathers after a certain number of trials, we can also ask how many attempts are necessary until the chance for getting zero drops has vanished below a certain threshold. 这一点在下图中展示。This is shown in the graph below.
对于掉落率为 3% 的物品，在约 200 次尝试后，一无所获的概率便近乎消失。For an item with a 3% drop rate, the probability for finding nothing nearly vanishes at around 200 attempts. 然而，对于 1% 的掉落率，则可能需要 500 次甚至更多的尝试。However, for a 1% drop rate, it may be necessary to have 500 trials or more. 同时请记住，即使零掉落的概率只剩下 1%，由于《流亡王国》拥有数十万玩家，这意味着仍有成千上万不走运的玩家存在。Also keep in mind that even if only 1% probability of zero drops is left, as Exiled Kingdoms is played by hundreds of thousands of players, this means that there are still thousands of unlucky players out there.
对这些人，我们只能说：这不是你的错，也不是游戏漏洞，这就是人生。For those, the only thing we can say is: It's not your fault, it's also not a bug, it's just life. 所以不要失去所有希望，再加把劲。So don't lose all hope and try harder. 命运眷顾勇者。Fortune favors the bold.